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Against this backdrop, global growth is forecast at 3. GDP releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, point to weaker-than-anticipated global activity. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back on long-range spending.

Accordingly, global trade, which is intensive in machinery and consumer durables, remains sluggish.

Green growth: promoting innovation and sustainability to foster business in Europe

The projected growth pickup in is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences. Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside. Multilateral and national policy actions are vital to place global growth on a stronger footing.

Specifically, countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue to pressure others for reforms.

World Economic Outlook Update, July Still Sluggish Global Growth

With subdued final demand and muted inflation, accommodative monetary policy is appropriate in advanced economies, and in emerging market and developing economies where expectations are anchored. Fiscal policy should balance multiple objectives: smoothing demand as needed, protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth potential with spending that supports structural reforms, and ensuring sustainable public finances over the medium term.

If growth weakens relative to the baseline, macroeconomic policies will need to turn more accommodative, depending on country circumstances. Priorities across all economies are to enhance inclusion, strengthen resilience, and address constraints on potential output growth. Subdued Momentum Weak final demand Against a difficult backdrop that included intensified US-China trade and technology tensions as well as prolonged uncertainty on Brexit, momentum in global activity remained soft in the first half of Soft global trade Spending patterns are also reflected in global trade, which tends to be intensive in investment goods and consumer durables.

Muted inflation Consistent with subdued growth in final demand, core inflation across advanced economies has softened below target for example in the United States or remained well below it euro area, Japan.

Regional presence

Mixed policy cues and shifts in risk appetite Policy actions and missteps have played an important role in shaping these outcomes, not least through their impact on market sentiment and business confidence. Global Growth Still Sluggish Global growth is projected at 3. In the United States , growth is expected to be 2. The revision to growth reflects stronger-than-anticipated first quarter performance. While the headline number was strong on the back of robust exports and inventory accumulation, domestic demand was somewhat softer than expected and imports weaker as well, in part reflecting the effect of tariffs.

These developments point to slowing momentum over the rest of the year. Growth in the euro area is projected at 1. Growth has been revised up for in Spain , reflecting strong investment and weak imports at the start of the year. Euro area growth is expected to pick up over the remainder of this year and into , as external demand is projected to recover and temporary factors including the dip in German car registrations and French street protests continue to fade.

The United Kingdom is set to expand at 1. The upward revision reflects a stronger-than-anticipated first quarter outturn boosted by pre-Brexit inventory accumulation and stockpiling. This is likely to be partially offset by payback over the remainder of the year. Monthly GDP for April recorded a sharp contraction, in part driven by major car manufacturers bringing forward regular annual shutdowns as part of Brexit contingency plans.

Policies for Sustainable Growth

The forecast assumes an orderly Brexit followed by a gradual transition to the new regime. However, as of mid-July, the ultimate form of Brexit remained highly uncertain.

The strong first quarter GDP release reflects inventory accumulation and a large contribution from net exports due to the sharp fall in imports, thus masking subdued underlying momentum. Growth is projected to decline to 0. Emerging and developing Asia is expected to grow at 6. The forecast is 0.

In China , the negative effects of escalating tariffs and weakening external demand have added pressure to an economy already in the midst of a structural slowdown and needed regulatory strengthening to rein in high dependence on debt. With policy stimulus expected to support activity in the face of the adverse external shock, growth is forecast at 6. The downward revision of 0. The subdued outlook for emerging and developing Europe in largely reflects prospects for Turkey, where—after a growth surprise in the first quarter from stronger-than-expected fiscal support—the contraction in activity associated with needed policy adjustments is projected to resume.

Several other countries in central and eastern Europe are experiencing strong growth on the back of resilient domestic demand and rising wages. The region is expected to grow at 1 percent in 0. Growth is expected to improve to 2.


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In Latin America , activity slowed notably at the start of the year across several economies, mostly reflecting idiosyncratic developments. The region is now expected to grow at 0. The sizable downward revision for reflects downgrades to Brazil where sentiment has weakened considerably as uncertainty persists about the approval of pension and other structural reforms and Mexico where investment remains weak and private consumption has slowed, reflecting policy uncertainty, weakening confidence, and rising borrowing costs, which could climb further following the recent sovereign rating downgrade.

The growth forecast for is revised down slightly compared with the April WEO, and the recovery in is now projected to be more modest. The deep humanitarian crisis and economic implosion in Venezuela continue to have a devastating impact, with the economy expected to shrink about 35 percent in The forecast for is 0. Civil strife across other economies, including Syria and Yemen , add to the difficult outlook for the region. In sub-Saharan Africa , growth is expected at 3. Higher, albeit volatile, oil prices have supported the outlook for Angola, Nigeria, and other oil-exporting countries in the region.

But growth in South Africa is expected at a more subdued pace in than projected in the April WEO following a very weak first quarter, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated impact of strike activity and energy supply issues in mining and weak agricultural production. Activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States is projected to grow at 1. The 0. Policy Priorities Considering that the projected pickup in global growth remains precarious and subject to downside risks, appropriately calibrated macroeconomic policies are central to stabilizing activity and strengthening the foundations of the recovery.

More specifically, across country groups, For advanced economies, where growth in final demand is generally subdued, inflation pressure is muted, and market-pricing-implied measures of inflation expectations have dipped in recent months, accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate. Svetlicic and M. Rojec eds. International Small Business Journal , 22 5 , pp. International Small Business Journal , 21 3 , pp. Ram, Monder and Smallbone, David Policies to support ethnic minority enterprise: the English experience.

International Small Business Journal , 19 4 , pp. Small Business Economics , 16 4 , pp. Smallbone, David and Welter, Friederike The distinctiveness of entrepreneurship in transition economies. Cheltenham, U. ISBN Todorov, Kiril and Smallbone, David , eds. Hershey, U. Welter, Friederike and Smallbone, David , eds. Smallbone, David , ed.

International library of entrepreneurship, no. Smallbone, David and Welter, Friederike Entrepreneurship and small business development in post-socialist economies. Abingdon, U.

Small Enterprise Development in South-East Europe

Routledge studies in small business ISBN Bulgarian Association for Management Development and Entrepreneurship. Smallbone, David and Kitching, John Are anchor institutions the answer to the prayers of small business owners in the UK?

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Roma in Central and Southeast Europe

Internationalization of firms from economies in transition: the effects of a politico-economic paradigm shift. SMEs and the economic crisis in the UK.